More positive signs of economic recovery

[Greebo]

Jobless claims drop more than expected - Business - Eye on the Economy - Stocks & economy - msnbc.com

Fewer people applied for unemployment benefits last week, a sign that layoffs are dropping and employers may be hiring more workers. The Labor Department says the number of people seeking benefits dropped 10,000 to 382,000 in the week ending April 2. That's the third drop in four weeks. The four-week average of applications, a less volatile measure, declined to 389,500.

and:

This time the growth in jobs looks to be real - Business - Eye on the Economy - msnbc.com

After more than two years of a bleak prospects for job seekers, the economy's slow, steady growth is finally creating jobs at a healthy pace.

I'll take slow-steady, sustainable growth over bubbles any day, personally. Things are still rough, but perhaps we've turned a corner here.

[Russ]

There are two things that still have me worried and may slow things down...

Oil prices and inflation. I know they go hand in hand but they are talked about and thought of separately.

[Greebo]

Nothing in the economy is independent, of course, but more jobs is still a plus, IMO.

[frugal is fun]

we had layoffs in Sept. of 2009, laid off 26 people. In the last three months we've had more job postings than in the last 3 years combined.

I will say that we are not replacing the positions that were laid off. We have a very prudent process in place to review a job description and change it to fit the need of the company now. What was is definitely not what is now.

[lovestoread]

but, couldn't those numbers be "fictitious" because , in my area, there are several who have been out of work for over 2 years, and have since lost all UE benefits....they drop off the "count", right??? That should be a poll they take....finding out how many have lost UE and still have no job..... still very sad...

[Telephus44]

I don't trust government numbers on much. Unemployment doesn't count too many people - the discouraged, those out for longer than 2 years, etc. The jobs created? Do you know what the margin of error is on that? I remember reading an article in Barron's back in 2007 on that month's particular job report. The author went through all the data - and basically they survey households and ask if anyone has a new job, and then check with payroll companies and ask them how many new paychecks are being created, sprinkle both numbers with fairy dust and come out the an answer - and the margin of error was plus or minus 200,000 jobs. Seriously. They have played around with how they report inflation, too.

I'm not a real gloom and doomer - I don't hoard gold and plan for rioting in the streets - but I also know that the government is just plain changing the way they compute all their numbers so it doesn't look as bad. I would call it lying.

[pollypurebred39]

My DH has been laid off for 3+ years. Until jobs come back to construction, which (in my opinion) is the bottom line statement on true recovery since construction is directly related to spending, there is no recovery (in my opinion). Spending is what makes our economy float after all. If people aren't clamoring to buy the latest, newest gadget, the newest fashion, or best whatever, my DH does not work. He builds malls, hospitals, churches, all of which require people to be very happy to part with their money. So say employment numbers are in fact going up, but the pay scale and hours are way down, does that equal recovery?

I want to believe it, boy do I want to believe it. I want to believe this nightmare will soon be over, but I just don't. No matter what the numbers say. So yes, a slow recovery is better then no recovery, but I'm not positive this is a recovery. I want to believe it, but I'm afraid it's much like a kid wanting to still believe that Santa is indeed real.

[chadillac3]

Due to the overbuilding during the boom years, construction would be one of the very last industries to come back IMO.

[GoodThyming]

Just wait until next week if the government shuts down. Hundreds of thousands of people will start filing new claims.

[momof42003]

DH had a phone call the other day from a "contracting" company. They essensially hire people to put at different plants like Intel, HP, and so forth (the micro chip and solar panel makers).. Three years ago the company DH worked for layed off 1000 people locally and the market took a nose dive world wide. The other day they offered him 4 different positions- 2 in Texas, 1 in Minnesota, and 1 in EUROPE!!! Of course he had to pass, because he has less than one term for school to get his BA in Electronic Technology. They understood and will call him in about 8 weeks. This phone call tells my DH that things are picking up, since they are the ones that make the chips for computers and such--aka luxury items--. At least that is what we hope.

[Homekeepn]

My DH lost his job six months ago after working for the same company for almost 22 years. He was not eligible for unemployement because his company wasn't big enough to pay the unemployement insurance. He was never counted in any poll. How many people are out there like him?

[pollypurebred39]

I just don't know about any of this, it really looks bleak out there. My Mom knows a woman who finally got a job as a teacher at a private school. Her pay? $9,000 a year as a full time teacher! BEFORE TAXES! Can you imagine? A job at lower pay then before is not a recovery to me.

And my son was told by one of his delivery drivers that the bakery he works for cut his route in half and put him at part time. Then the hired new drivers for the half routes. They needed the numbers to look good for the stockholders! Talk about fudge'n it! No new orders, no increase in sales, just more people on their employment roll!

[kita]

Yes, I agree the numbers can be fudged. When I lost my job in a few years back I was never counted in the UE numbers because I had a part-time job that I didn't lose. I was elgible for UE but never counted because I had a job.
I do think it is better just don't know how much better. When I first moved to Portland in Dec of 09 I saw ads for a newspaper carrier which required experiance and also one for an accounting clerk which paid $12 an hour and asked for a four year degree in accounting....

[MomToTwoBoys]

I have a lot of friends who went years without a job. They had really great jobs, then when the recession hit it took them out too. But I would say that in the last six months or so, they've been getting jobs left and right. A friend of mine who moved from Arizona to NY got a job after looking for two weeks. She would have sat unemployed in Arizona if she'd stayed there.

I believe the job numbers, but the true sign for me is the dollar. It's taken a nose dive and it's sitting at 1.045 per one USD now. Even with the recovery in the US, oil and natural gas and gold are really weighing heavily on the Canadian dollar. That takes a bite out of my pension and in a way, hurts the economy because with a stronger Canadian dollar, there's less being manufactured.

I think that what many people have to realize is that in an economic growth cycle, some labor areas are going to boom and others will fizzle. That's when it's time to move on and find another area of work that you'd love to do. If you're waiting on something you've done for years to thrive and it's still dead, then it's time to expand your job skills and do something else. You never know; That job you love could never regain its luster.

[savvy_sniper]

I know lots of people UNDER employed, some out of work, and lots of teachers and school related people are being laid off all over Texas due to budget cuts. I think things are looking worse, not better.