Global recession hits the news...

**peanut** · 10-24-2008, 03:50 PM

big time today in Canada...again. We are doing relatively fine, but over 80% of our trade is with the U.S., who is not. They were saying they expected the American recession to be as severe as the 1980s...which was hard on everyone. "They" was a University of Calgary professor who is an economic policy advisor.

Of course, it was all prompted by the bottom falling out of the market again. Sigh...I am growing weary of this. I am wondering if there'll be any retirement for DH and I at all. We will not be putting any more money into the stock market.

Time for a reread of The Complete Tightwad Gazette. And to check my stockpile. I hear black cherry juice doubled in price overnight here. Good thing I don't drink it. Probably should, but can't afford it at that price. I'm off to check the price of the local hot pool compared to the spa. Might not spring for a gym pass this winter after all. Maybe just to get to the hot tub once a week...

Jean

**monkeywrangler71** · 10-24-2008, 04:18 PM

Inflation is starting to drop, and expected to drop dramatically over the next year after the bottom falling out of the oil market. So it seems we can at least put the stagflation fears to bed.

Obviously we are going to take some heavy hits on the low oil prices, they don't think Ottawa can avoid a deficit next year. But I think we can recover a lot quicker from short term deficit spending than we can from stagflation.

It's going to be depressing though, watching that national debt going the wrong direction again.

**Luv2BeFrugal** · 10-24-2008, 06:26 PM

The news I was 'absorbed in' yesterday (I'm a business/economics news junkie) was saying that it will be comparative to the recession in the 70's (worse than the one in the 80's).

I imagine we'll all 'recover' from this in a year or so...things will go on...

Good idea to do another re-read of the TWG!!

I need to 'hone' my skills!

**peanut** · 10-24-2008, 06:57 PM

Originally Posted by peanut

big time today in Canada...again. We are doing relatively fine, but over 80% of our trade is with the U.S., who is not.

I stand corrected. I was listening to the radio today and they say we send over 60% of our exports to the US. Still, it's a big number...

Jean

**peanut** · 10-24-2008, 06:59 PM

Originally Posted by monkeywrangler71

Obviously we are going to take some heavy hits on the low oil prices, they don't think Ottawa can avoid a deficit next year.

Sigh...and guess who bought into the resource industry in March. yep...me...sigh...

Jean

**monkeywrangler71** · 10-24-2008, 07:13 PM

Originally Posted by peanut

Sigh...and guess who bought into the resource industry in March. yep...me...sigh...

Jean

sorry. My father in law told me in the summer to get out of financials and get into energy. I guess he was half right.

OPEC is likely going to cut down the supply. The middle east produces a lot cheaper than we do, but even they would be below their break even point by now.

**rainbowgc** · 10-25-2008, 12:45 PM

Personally I think we are in a depression and it's on the QT!

**peanut** · 10-25-2008, 08:51 PM

Originally Posted by rainbowgc

Personally I think we are in a depression and it's on the QT!

LOL! Sometimes I wonder about that too. DH and I are doing fine because we are fairly frugal people. But I look at people around me who aren't, and they are definitely gasping for air...or money. Some of my friends are actually looking at doing the dreaded "B" word ... bbbbbudget!

But we are nowhere near as bad off as the U.S...yet...

Interesting news from the job front. I hear people saying there's lots of jobs on the market in our city. But in talking to people pounding the pavement looking for work, they are saying it's mostly part time work, at minimum wage.

Latest numbers I heard last night is that SASKATCHEWAN exports 60% of what it produces to the U.S. Apparently most provinces have higher export figures. SK is among the lowest. So if the U.S. goes down, a big chunk of Canada is going too. It's just a matter of when...

Jean

**Marie78** · 10-25-2008, 09:27 PM

Originally Posted by rainbowgc

Personally I think we are in a depression and it's on the QT!

It's late and I can't figure out what QT means. I agree about the depression and I can't believe all the money my family and inlaws have lost in the stock market. I am thankful we had no money to put in the market...now we at least have a small EF and haven't lost any money. I do feel bad for those that have lost money though. There are some part time jobs around here, but full time jobs with good benefits are hard to find and I'm holding onto my job as tightly as I can.

**monkeywrangler71** · 10-25-2008, 10:25 PM

Originally Posted by peanut

Interesting news from the job front. I hear people saying there's lots of jobs on the market in our city. But in talking to people pounding the pavement looking for work, they are saying it's mostly part time work, at minimum wage.

Yes, but when things are really bad, those jobs are gone too.

In the early nineties you couldn't get a job at Mcdonald's back home without knowing someone. Minimum wage jobs were not advertised, they were quietly given to friends and family, because if they advertised they would have to sift through 500 applications. The help wanted ads in the paper were a quarter page long and all straight commission sales, followed by several pages of people offering to do odd jobs for cash or food. Grown ups were competing for paper routes and shoveling driveways. This was in the city, where the unemployment rate was not anywhere near as high as the rural areas or Cape Breton.

In '95 I saw a little sign in the window at Tim Horton's "help wanted, apply within", that's when I knew everything was going to be okay again. I'm still seeing those little signs.

**rainbowgc** · 10-26-2008, 12:47 PM

QT = Quiet Time (shhh said the government, don't tell everyone how really bad it is)

**ironmaiden** · 10-26-2008, 02:23 PM

The stock of DH's company went from a 52 week high of $72 to $12.
DH is now referring to retiring as "Plan A" - Plan A is what never happens around here. I used to joke that the company DH works for is its own little mutual fund as it owns many different kinds of divisions. Their financial division is what took them down. DH said that what people are worried about at work now is that they are now so cheap that they are ripe for takeover. Nevermind the security of his future pension.

We've gone from doing well, in good shape to in the toilet in 6 weeks. As for the 401K and IRAs, we'll just hold onto them. To sell anything now would be locking in our losses. We have 20 years til retirement, so we are lucky.

And then I was reading that it was 2 years from when the market originally tanked to when the unemployment rate hit 25% in the Depression.