Beef prices will begin to go to record highs

**HappyMama** · 10-21-2011, 05:52 PM

Thought this would be of interest for many as a FYI. Stock up now! I know many of you have gotten some deals lately good job, keep going.

Anyone found any other information, stock up items for good prices , deals lately?

Shrinking Beef Supply Spurs Record Prices as Sales Decline - Businessweek

Updates with closing cattle price in sixth paragraph and feeder-cattle record in ninth paragraph.)

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. feedlots probably bought fewer cattle last month as a Texas drought reduced the number of available animals, signaling tight beef supplies, record meat prices and higher costs for restaurants such as Sonic Corp.

Purchases probably fell 3.2 percent to 2.385 million head of cattle from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 10 analysts. The government will report inventories at 3 p.m. in Washington. In the 12 months ended Oct. 1, Texas, the leading beef producer, had the driest period since records began in 1895.

This week, cattle futures for December delivery rose to $1.24475 a pound in Chicago, a record for the most-active contract. Sonic, a drive-in hamburger chain, said that beef was one of the “primary cost drivers” in the quarter ended Aug. 31. Ground beef jumped to $2.868 a pound in September, the highest since at least 1984.

“Because of drought, we’re going to have fewer cattle for the next several years,” Tim Petry, a livestock economist at North Dakota State University in Fargo, said in a telephone interview. Lower placements at feedlots last month “should be the start of a trend that will ultimately go to lower beef production,” he said.

Fed-steer prices next year may average $1.22 a pound, up 6.1 percent from a projection of $1.15 a pound in 2011, an all- time high, Petry said. Record prices may extend into 2013, averaging $1.27 a pound, he said.

Annual Rallies

Cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have climbed 13 percent this year after surging 26 percent in 2010. U.S. consumers may pay 9 percent more for beef in 2011, more than any other food group, the government has forecast. The December futures rose 0.3 percent to settle at $1.2215 a pound today.

More than 72 percent of Texas is in “exceptional” drought, according to the University of Nebraska’s U.S. Drought Monitor. In June and July, producers sent cattle to feedlots earlier than normal and in larger numbers, government data show.

Feedlots in the U.S. buy year-old cattle that weigh 500 pounds (227 kilograms) to 800 pounds, called feeders. It takes about four or five months on a diet of mostly corn before the animals weigh about 1,200 pounds, when they are sold to meatpackers.

Feeder-Cattle Record

Feeder-cattle futures, which reached a record $1.4875 a pound today, have climbed 32 percent in the past 12 months.

The total feedlot herd on Oct. 1 probably totaled 11.229 million head, up 4.1 percent from a year earlier, according to the Bloomberg survey. Producers sold about 1.811 million fattened cattle to slaughterhouses in September, up 0.5 percent from a year earlier, analysts said.

Stephen C. Vaughan, the chief financial officer of Oklahoma City-based Sonic, said on a conference call on Oct. 18 that the company plans to make a “small price increase this fall.” The latest earnings trailed estimates by analysts, and the shares have slumped 33 percent this year.

**HappyMama** · 10-21-2011, 06:02 PM

Here are some articles on the situation I had put on another post thought I would put them all together , for those of you who like to research.

The reason is the drought that happened for many ranchers this summer, not enough hay, and feed for the crops and cattle. Heartbreaking many had to send to auction many of their prized herds and some all of the herds and got out of the business altogether. They are predicting a hard time and many will not go back in business and will take many yrs to replace and get their herds up to that number. Same happened in dairy industry.

There are many other stories out there but it will give you the jest....

Many of my rancher friends in California liquidated many. Very sad, for them and horrible for prices in the futures market and family tables in near future.

Ordered my cow and will have that soon.

So be blessed seize the beef deals when you can.

Pie N Politics Cattle Numbers Dwindle U.S. Ranchers Sell Off Heifers in Face of Drought, Feed Costs

http://pienpolitics.com/?p=5732

Drought forces ranchers to sell off cattle | khou.com Houston

Here is another:

http://www.npr.org/2011/08/26/139947...cattle-at-risk

**Uniwolf** · 10-21-2011, 06:28 PM

UGH just another increase to add to all of the others

**mndtrp** · 10-21-2011, 09:01 PM

It just means that the beef you do get will be better than before. All of the crappy cows will have died out.

**Palooka** · 10-21-2011, 10:28 PM

Or just don't eat beef at all.

**New-mom-to-be** · 10-21-2011, 10:41 PM

Good thing I don't eat it, so I don't buy it.

**Trishagirl** · 10-21-2011, 11:14 PM

I don't eat much but some ground beef. Mostly eat chicken & turkey.

**Contrary Housewife** · 10-22-2011, 12:47 AM

Eh. Beef is a 'renewable resource.' Next spring they'll have a whole bunch of new little calves getting ready to become someone's dinner and prices will drop. I'm not going to panic over it.

**HappyMama** · 10-22-2011, 10:49 AM

Originally Posted by Contrary Housewife

Eh. Beef is a 'renewable resource.' Next spring they'll have a whole bunch of new little calves getting ready to become someone's dinner and prices will drop. I'm not going to panic over it.

This is why I hesitate putting things on this particular board not asking anyone to panic..... just informing . But I personally know many who have got out of the business at a loss but no worries they are looking into lab meat to fill the need in the future...lol

I never think it is important to panic , I do think it is important to know prices, commodities , futures, how those prices will affect you now and in the future and stock accordingly. To each his own blessings abound.

**AspiringToBeFrugal** · 10-22-2011, 11:30 AM

Thanks for passing this along!

My mom keeps me up-to-date on the price of beef at her supermarket and surprisingly, sometimes her small-town grocery store beats out the prices of our larger town, corporate store! Right now, their ground beef prices (80/20) is $1.99 a pound! I'm seriously thinking of asking her to stock up on it for me and I'll pay her out of our monthly food budget!

When I visited her a couple of weeks ago, I stocked up on her store's ground turkey and chicken sales as well as their pork loin and beef roast sales.

Get the best deal when/where you can!

**Uniwolf** · 10-22-2011, 12:05 PM

HappyMama;
I greatly appriciate the heads up on this. Or anything else that you or anyone posts.
I work 40-50 hrs in 3 1/2 days, so needless to say I miss alot of things ...

This board is how I stay updated on alot of things like that. I don't panic, panic gets you no where but maybe a visit to the Dr. But it does give me the option to read up on a comeing possible issue, and address it as I see best for me and my family.

So please, all continue to share. I don't belive that there are many here that are going to panic. But it does give us the option to be better prepared.

**shoiji** · 10-22-2011, 12:33 PM

I only buy beef if it is a managers special.

**nuisance26** · 10-22-2011, 04:47 PM

~I'm not really surprised. I was just telling DH that I have no idea how they can offer beef so "cheap" to begin with($4lb low end with rare $2lb sales). The way grain prices have gone up, how can they afford to feed them without significantly increasing the meat price?
We've had beef less than 3 times a month over the last two years. It's just been out of my price range for a long time. ~

**ladytoysdream** · 10-22-2011, 06:43 PM

Originally Posted by Contrary Housewife

Eh. Beef is a 'renewable resource.' Next spring they'll have a whole bunch of new little calves getting ready to become someone's dinner and prices will drop. I'm not going to panic over it.

If the farmer bred his animals back. Approximately 283 days for gestation. Then approximately 24 to 30 months to get them to market weight. If a lot of animals went to slaugher recently due to extreme weather conditions/drought and the feed prices continue to stay high, then new cattle coming to market weight may be awhile.
I don't see prices dropping anytime soon.

If you find a sale....stock up.

My plan...hunting season is now.....venison

**mndtrp** · 10-22-2011, 07:06 PM

Originally Posted by nuisance26

~I'm not really surprised. I was just telling DH that I have no idea how they can offer beef so "cheap" to begin with($4lb low end with rare $2lb sales). The way grain prices have gone up, how can they afford to feed them without significantly increasing the meat price?

The best beef comes from grass fed cows. Grass shouldn't cost much of anything.