Another Sign That Another Depression is Coming?

[hippytreehugger4ever]

The last couple of line especially struck me as something that happened during the first Depression

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/financial_meltdown

[janis362529]

What I love the most is that we are in a recession but they keep saying one is coming. I think the gov will call a depression a recession just so people do not freak out.

[janis362529]

LOL hubby says the same thing to me

[nodmicks]

This CNN article un-nerved me a bit. http://www.cnbc.com/id/26656750

No one is saying it will be like the Great Depression. Historically there have been several depressions that were not huge like the great depression. If I understand correctly the definition of a depression is 4 quarters of negative growth. Bad but not like the Great depression.

I sure know something is up as in our area businesses are folding, pulling out etc and the local news daily had lots more layoff news.

[Greebo]

This CNN article un-nerved me a bit. http://www.cnbc.com/id/26656750

No one is saying it will be like the Great Depression. Historically there have been several depressions that were not huge like the great depression. If I understand correctly the definition of a depression is 4 quarters of negative growth. Bad but not like the Great depression.

I sure know something is up as in our area businesses are folding, pulling out etc and the local news daily had lots more layoff news.

I don't think there is a technical definition of a depression. Recessions are 2 quarters or more of negative GDP growth, depressions are just larger scale, afaik.

[nodmicks]

I don't think there is a technical definition of a depression. Recessions are 2 quarters or more of negative GDP growth, depressions are just larger scale, afaik.

Greebo what is afaik????????

[justatxmom]

I've noticed on some news commentaries they never say depression. It's an "extreme recession."

Businesses are closing, people are being layed off, and the town that we live in is no longer experiencing the huge growth explosion it was just a year or two ago. Construction has stopped, a lot of buildings and houses are only half built, new parking lots with no shopping centers built, subdivisions with just a few houses and no sales centers, and where signs advertising XYZ business coming soon are no longer.

Personally, I think credit cards are just prolonging the inevitable. A lot people out there really don't know they are in a financial crisis becasue they can still buy stuff. Even with the economy going south there is still a lot of frivolous spending. Evidence of that is the doggie day spa (complete with poochy manicure and massage) motorhomes I see around town and parked at peoples houses.

ETA: Prep for any emergency situation or crisis is always a good thing. You just never know what lies up the road. Actually preparedness and frugality do go hand in hand.

[Greebo]

AFAIK: As far as I know.

While there certainly are areas of the country in which times are very tough, this is not true of the entire country. Overall, the economy in the US is still growing (as of 2Q08) and above the expected rate of growth.

Now, this latest bailout may have a negative impact, as well as the latest financial news, but I still don't buy into the extreme "the world as we know it is coming to a tragic and painful end" mindset.

[nodmicks]

AFAIK: As far as I know.

While there certainly are areas of the country in which times are very tough, this is not true of the entire country. Overall, the economy in the US is still growing (as of 2Q08) and above the expected rate of growth.

Now, this latest bailout may have a negative impact, as well as the latest financial news, but I still don't buy into the extreme "the world as we know it is coming to a tragic and painful end" mindset.

Ok got it~afaik! I don't believe the world as we know it will come to tragic painful end either. I do believe it might get a bit harder $ wise. Not all depressions historically have been long and terrible. Some people really profited during them (not most though).

I agree with justatxmom that credit is propping many people up so the full impact isn't felt.
The recent bankruptcy numbers were bad btw!
I think all of us frugal folks are better of in a recession or depression so that helps!

[Patty A]

I find it kind of funny that another reason they give for a depression or a recession is "the hoarding of money", it isn't in circulation. People just don't spend when things go so high so fast. The end of the great depression came about when great borrowing and spending on defense for World War II. I have to wonder if that is why they say a war is good for the economy, I sure don't see it that way but it is written about a lot over World War II and how it helped stop the Great Depression.

It is scary to see how many things lead us to see the same things happening now that happened then. The government admits we are in a recession, but there isn't a lot of differences in recession and depression any way. You have to remember that the stock market crash in October of 87 was worse that the one in 29 which lead to the Great Depression. We recovered for the one in 87, and hopefully we will soon get this under control and see things turn for the better for all of us.

[Greebo]

The government admits we are in a recession

As of when did they admit this? Source link please.

[Patty A]

Greebo I sent you a private message with the links and sources on it. I don't have enough posts here to let it add a website from me.

I sent you three souces, with quotes as a private message. I hope I did it right, so if you don't get it let me know and I will try it a different way. I am a newbie here and don't know how all these things work yet, so hopefully I did it right.

If you don't get it let me know how to email them to you and I will try that way to get them to you.

Thanks

[Greebo]

I'll take the above as implied permission for me to reproduce it here.

Here it is Greebo,
Come from the hearing of US Congress and the Federal Reserve Bank, Feburary 2008. I guess you would call them government.

http://www.zmag.org/zmag/viewArticle/17055

Also here,

http://media.www.themichiganjournal....-3161523.shtml

"even Republicans now admit that recession looms"

and one more;

http://www.poorandstupid.com/2008_07...ronArchive.asp

"Democrats are much more pessimistic than Republicans. Among Democrats, 77% said they think the world is in recession, while 55% of Republicans agreed. Political independents fell in-between the two, as 67% said the globe was in an economic downturn."

Ok - of the three links, only the first actually involves a Government official, and that one is from February. And he didn't say we were in one, he said one was coming.

The other two are 1) a non-specific reference (unverifiable) and 2) a public opinion poll.

A Recession's technical definition (although somewhat contested) is 2 quarters or more of negative growth of the GDP. In 1Q08, the GDP GREW (positively) by 0.9%, IIRC. In 2Q08, it grew at nearly 3% which was above forecast estimates of 1.9%.

So the GDP is growing, and the rate of growth is increasing, IN SPITE of all the negative economic news.

That is not a recession.

Now - some areas are in recession, yes, and some are even in depression - but as a nation, we are actually still growing, albeit more slowly than we are used to.

What this latest news of bank shutdowns/failures/buyouts will do probably won't be good, but to-date, we are still growing. Barely.

[frugalbabe]

Can anyboy guess when historically the most millionares are made? During depressions. Keep your head and common sense while others are running around losing theirs and there are opportunities to be had. You just have to have the intelligence and guts to recognize them when you see them and the courage to go for it.

[fuzzybunny]

Here is an interesting article about the topic.

http://www.boom2bust.com/2007/12/13/...n-us%e2%80%99/

I don't know what's going to happen, so I'm just paying down my debt, stockpiling when I can and trusting that whatever happens God will see us through.