Recession still here...

**Trishagirl** · 09-15-2009, 02:47 PM

check out this article about the recession I hope it doesn't come true. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...recession.html

**NikoSan999** · 09-15-2009, 09:57 PM

That's all we need. I finally have a day where I feel a little more confident and something shoots me down.

I don't think the real people of the US can take another year of this.

Bernanke, you don't live in the real world. You don't have a clue.

**imagine** · 09-16-2009, 08:51 AM

Hre is another news about the recession Titled Recession Likely Over
it was on this morning on NPR.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/...cession_v.html

**Greebo** · 09-16-2009, 08:56 AM

The Bernacke (sp?) soundbyte that's being overplayed is bad on its own, but B. actually spent a goodish amount of time talking about how it won't FEEL like its over for a while, in no small part because of unemployment levels.

BUT I think it was a bad soundbyte to make. It followed the news about retail sales being up - but those retail sales were heavily inflated by Cash for Clunkers results. If you filter out the C4C numbers, the sales increases were 0.4% - HARDLY 'happy days are here again' numbers. And next month's numbers are poised to be all the worse, as C4C hangovers kick in. Dealers riding high this month are gonna be in pain next month because of all those people who bought a bit earlier than they otherwise would have.

So while I hold convinced to the idea that the world WILL NOT END over this, I also think that we may well see a few more downturns before we see real growth.

**littleplum** · 09-16-2009, 12:56 PM

Originally Posted by Greebo

The Bernacke (sp?) soundbyte that's being overplayed is bad on its own, but B. actually spent a goodish amount of time talking about how it won't FEEL like its over for a while, in no small part because of unemployment levels.

BUT I think it was a bad soundbyte to make. It followed the news about retail sales being up - but those retail sales were heavily inflated by Cash for Clunkers results. If you filter out the C4C numbers, the sales increases were 0.4% - HARDLY 'happy days are here again' numbers. And next month's numbers are poised to be all the worse, as C4C hangovers kick in. Dealers riding high this month are gonna be in pain next month because of all those people who bought a bit earlier than they otherwise would have.

So while I hold convinced to the idea that the world WILL NOT END over this, I also think that we may well see a few more downturns before we see real growth.

Is that 0.4% annualized?

**Greebo** · 09-16-2009, 12:58 PM

No, just for the month of August IIRC

**littleplum** · 09-16-2009, 01:03 PM

Originally Posted by Greebo

No, just for the month of August IIRC

That's a 4.8% jump, then.

Or maybe not. I think I did that wrong!

**Greebo** · 09-16-2009, 01:14 PM

Originally Posted by littleplum

That's a 4.8% jump, then.

Or maybe not. I think I did that wrong!

It was "manufacturing production" - and it isn't a number one looks at on an annualized basis. It's a month-to-month number - how much was produced this month vs. last month.

0.4% is better than 0.3%, I agree - but think about it... that's 0.4% excluding auto buffed up by C4C. Auto on its own went up 5.5%. Total combined worked out to 1.4%. So a 5.5% increase in auto production yielded a 1% gain in total production numbers.

So when nobody is buying cars in September, what's the 5% drop going to do to total production? Nothing good...

.4% is good, but artificial hope on a bogus stimulus package followed by a bigger drop than we would have seen had they left well enough alone could have a devastating effect on consumer confidence, and low confidence means people spend less, making the economy worse.

**littleplum** · 09-16-2009, 01:22 PM

Originally Posted by Greebo

It was "manufacturing production" - and it isn't a number one looks at on an annualized basis. It's a month-to-month number - how much was produced this month vs. last month.

0.4% is better than 0.3%, I agree - but think about it... that's 0.4% excluding auto buffed up by C4C. Auto on its own went up 5.5%. Total combined worked out to 1.4%. So a 5.5% increase in auto production yielded a 1% gain in total production numbers.

So when nobody is buying cars in September, what's the 5% drop going to do to total production? Nothing good...

.4% is good, but artificial hope on a bogus stimulus package followed by a bigger drop than we would have seen had they left well enough alone could have a devastating effect on consumer confidence, and low confidence means people spend less, making the economy worse.

Manufacturing? I thought your quote said it was retail sales minus autos sold through the C4C program. And when they are deducting the C4C money are they deducting the increased salaries to sales agents that were spent on retail, as well as the actual $3500-4500 cash back that a lot of people went and spent on consumer goods? I know that several people on the news were saying that they were taking their C4C cash and spending it on school supplies, or putting it aside for Christmas, etc.

**Greebo** · 09-16-2009, 01:32 PM

Actually both spiked - production AND sales. Both were artificially high due to autos - retail sales up 2.7% w/ autos, 1.1 w/o (and only 0.4 w/o autos AND gas), and production I already went over.

But sales numbers don't factor in commissions, no. Sales numbers reflect gross turnover. A number that would include adjusting for commissions would be a profit based number.

**NikoSan999** · 09-16-2009, 02:21 PM

Originally Posted by Greebo

The Bernacke (sp?) soundbyte that's being overplayed is bad on its own, but B. actually spent a goodish amount of time talking about how it won't FEEL like its over for a while, in no small part because of unemployment levels.

BUT I think it was a bad soundbyte to make. It followed the news about retail sales being up - but those retail sales were heavily inflated by Cash for Clunkers results. If you filter out the C4C numbers, the sales increases were 0.4% - HARDLY 'happy days are here again' numbers. And next month's numbers are poised to be all the worse, as C4C hangovers kick in. Dealers riding high this month are gonna be in pain next month because of all those people who bought a bit earlier than they otherwise would have.

So while I hold convinced to the idea that the world WILL NOT END over this, I also think that we may well see a few more downturns before we see real growth.

Ahh Greebo, one we agree on 100%...Along with the Cash for Clunkers, we have, going back to school..ie..clothes, shoes, paper supplies, school supplies ranging from tissues to glue...going back to college or first time goers, computers, put together furniture, little fridges...well you get the idea.

These are things like the clunkers that are now over and done with.

Nope, not over yet and if China, India and others quit buying our metals like last Oct that is definitely not going to help either.

**NikoSan999** · 09-16-2009, 02:29 PM

Originally Posted by littleplum

Manufacturing? I thought your quote said it was retail sales minus autos sold through the C4C program. And when they are deducting the C4C money are they deducting the increased salaries to sales agents that were spent on retail, as well as the actual $3500-4500 cash back that a lot of people went and spent on consumer goods? I know that several people on the news were saying that they were taking their C4C cash and spending it on school supplies, or putting it aside for Christmas, etc.

Ok, now I'm curious. I thought the $4500 went to the dealership and that the government reimbursed the dealership. NONE going to the buyer. Dealership knocks off $4500 from cost of vehicle and buyer walks out paying less for vehicle. THEN government pays dealership $4500. Our dealerships are still waiting for this money wondering if they are going to get it. According to them and the news.

If this is right then buyer would not have this money to spend period. It is not even money actually saved because at least 1/2 wouldn't have bought the new vehicle if it hadn't been for this. The other half probably already had a car payment and just added more money on to the new payment by trading in the old car and balance owed.

Don't think buyer got the $4500

**Greebo** · 09-16-2009, 02:35 PM

Originally Posted by NikoSan999

Ok, now I'm curious. I thought the $4500 went to the dealership and that the government reimbursed the dealership. NONE going to the buyer. Dealership knocks off $4500 from cost of vehicle and buyer walks out paying less for vehicle. THEN government pays dealership $4500. Our dealerships are still waiting for this money wondering if they are going to get it. According to them and the news.

Right, and what that means on paper is the buyer got the $4,500 credit. It's like "Hey honey, look at the new dress I bought for $10,500 - I SAVED $4,500 on it!!!"

If this is right then buyer would not have this money to spend period. It is not even money actually saved because at least 1/2 wouldn't have bought the new vehicle if it hadn't been for this. The other half probably already had a car payment and just added more money on to the new payment by trading in the old car and balance owed.

Sounds about right - and there were news stories even before the program ended about a massive increase of "buyers remorse" as people lured in by the BIG BIG SAVINGS went out, got huge new car loans (I mean, $4,500 off a $25,000 car is still a $20,000 debt) and now are contemplating the payments.

Don't think buyer got the $4500

Yes, the buyer did - in the form of a $4,500 discount off the car. It was a paper discount - no cash.

**nodmicks** · 09-16-2009, 03:21 PM

Originally Posted by Greebo

Right, and what that means on paper is the buyer got the $4,500 credit. It's like "Hey honey, look at the new dress I bought for $10,500 - I SAVED $4,500 on it!!!"

Sounds about right - and there were news stories even before the program ended about a massive increase of "buyers remorse" as people lured in by the BIG BIG SAVINGS went out, got huge new car loans (I mean, $4,500 off a $25,000 car is still a $20,000 debt) and now are contemplating the payments.

Yes, the buyer did - in the form of a $4,500 discount off the car. It was a paper discount - no cash.

Ah the program that set my teeth grinding! Now people who can't afford it are further in debt. Well they will not be stimulating the economy as they struggle with car loans.

On a good note though I have a client who is a car dealer and he says it has created a shortage of inexpensive used autos. According to him that means soon my trust 2001 Ford will actually be worth a little more if I decided to sell it than before cash for clunkers since there are less inexpensive "clunkers" to go around. It really is sad that perfectly serviceable cars end up in the scrap yard.

Also did you read the statistics on which auto makers this program helped most??? Sigh.........

**NikoSan999** · 09-16-2009, 03:36 PM

Greebo
"

Quote:
Don't think buyer got the $4500

Yes, the buyer did - in the form of a $4,500 discount off the car. It was a paper discount - no cash."

But the buyer didn't have cash in hand to go buy school stuff and such as little plum(?) said was on tv with people saying they were going to go out and buy this and that with the money when they got it.
Do you suppose they actually thought they were going to have it cash in HAND not paper/discount. Or am I still getting this wrong.