Nuclear Plant Explodes in Japan

**Daisygirl** · 03-12-2011, 11:37 AM

CTV Edmonton - Reactor not damaged in Japan nuclear plant explosion - CTV News

My prayers are with those in Japan - the military is giving out doses of iodine to treat people for exposure to radiation. If the radiation gets into the ocean, it will take approximately 36 hours to reach the shores of North America.

I can't imagine the shock and fear these innocents must be feeling. It makes me even more determined to prep as much as possible, but also underlines that no amount of prepping can help you in certain situations.

I know this article says the radiation is not escaping - I really don't believe it. I think it is the government trying to calm the fears of the people and prevent hysteria. I think the death toll there is just beginning.

Spending time in prayer today....

**low-1** · 03-12-2011, 11:46 AM

The link "claims" that the walls and roof of the building containing the reactor blew apart, but the reactor itself was undamaged. Let's hope that's the truth, if not, definitely not good news. Well, not really good news any way you slice it...

Thanks for the post.

**Nishu** · 03-12-2011, 12:15 PM

Assuming the contamination levels released are equal to that of TMI (13 million curies of contamination released) which is a worst case scenario (partial meltdown venting to atmosphere).

Assuming the contamination concentrates into only 10% of the Pacific Ocean (7.9e^22 milliliters) which is also a worst case scenario assuming it makes a bee-line to your house on the beach in the states.

That results in a total contamination concentration of 7.9e-10 uCi/ml which is 10,000 times below the federal limit for waterborne radio-active contamination.

This concentration would result in a total increase of background radiation levels by 1.2e-12 R/hr. This is 1,000,000,000,000 below the threshold used to define an area as a "Radiation Area". This radiation level, assuming you swam in it every day all day, would increase your annual radiation exposure by 1.8e-11 Rads.

By comparison, you get .05 rads when you fly cross country, you get .3 rads just from living on planet earth, and if you smoke a pack a day, you get 20 rads a year from the cigarette smoke. So smoking cigarettes gives you 1,114,099,052 more radiation than if you bathed in this "radioactive" water that would wash up to your shore.

**Nishu** · 03-12-2011, 12:24 PM

Originally Posted by Nishu

Assuming the contamination levels released are equal to that of TMI (13 million curies of contamination released) which is a worst case scenario (partial meltdown venting to atmosphere).

Assuming the contamination concentrates into only 10% of the Pacific Ocean (7.9e^22 milliliters) which is also a worst case scenario assuming it makes a bee-line to your house on the beach in the states.

That results in a total contamination concentration of 7.9e-10 uCi/ml which is 10,000 times below the federal limit for waterborne radio-active contamination.

This concentration would result in a total increase of background radiation levels by 1.2e-12 R/hr. This is 1,000,000,000,000 below the threshold used to define an area as a "Radiation Area". This radiation level, assuming you swam in it every day all day, would increase your annual radiation exposure by 1.8e-11 Rads.

By comparison, you get .05 rads when you fly cross country, you get .3 rads just from living on planet earth, and if you smoke a pack a day, you get 20 rads a year from the cigarette smoke. So smoking cigarettes gives you 1,114,099,052 more radiation than if you bathed in this "radioactive" water that would wash up to your shore.

That was my husband. Non-nerd translation, we're not in any danger over here.

What he didn't say is that there's no way the contamination could reach us in 36 hours. From here to Tokyo is about 4700 miles, and if I did my math right that means the current would have to be taking it 130 mph. The ocean current is as much as 5 mph, according to google, which does not lie, and I think that means it would take 940 hours to get to the west coast.

**Nishu** · 03-12-2011, 12:39 PM

I have to add, just in case it sounds like i"m being callous, I am very concerned about the people in Japan. My husband and I have friends there. We know these friends because the Mr. had the same job that my husband did in the nuke field, the job that allows my husband to do those absolutely outrageous calculations that he just did. This friend of ours, the former nuke that knows a reactor plant in and out, has been following the developments and is not overly concerned about the situation.

Our circle of Navy friends pretty much all do the same thing, and a lot of them have friends in Japan as well, and the consensus seems to be that it's under control. I am still concerned, but I'm trying to temper it with the fact that these guys, both my friends and the engineers in Japan, know what they're they're talking about.

**MomToTwoBoys** · 03-12-2011, 12:41 PM

I wouldn't worry about this. Really. You can't control what's happening and I'm sure that whomever can is doing whatever they can to make things better (about as much as they can).

I'd be more worried about the 4-inch shift in the Earth's axis and the fact that Japan's coastline moved 8 feet.

Originally Posted by Daisygirl

CTV Edmonton - Reactor not damaged in Japan nuclear plant explosion - CTV News

My prayers are with those in Japan - the military is giving out doses of iodine to treat people for exposure to radiation. If the radiation gets into the ocean, it will take approximately 36 hours to reach the shores of North America.

I can't imagine the shock and fear these innocents must be feeling. It makes me even more determined to prep as much as possible, but also underlines that no amount of prepping can help you in certain situations.

I know this article says the radiation is not escaping - I really don't believe it. I think it is the government trying to calm the fears of the people and prevent hysteria. I think the death toll there is just beginning.

Spending time in prayer today....

**Joshin** · 03-12-2011, 04:07 PM

No need to worry about the axis shift either, most major earthquakes and volcanoes cause slight shifts to the axis so it's a fairly common occurrence. These eventually get absorbed into the Chandler wobble.

I have some very close friends living not to far outside the evac zone. They aren't depending on the GoJ for reliable evacuation orders/radiation leak info but are sitting tight for now. They got electricity back this morning (my time) so at least he's able to send out updates. I'm worried sick.

**Daisygirl** · 03-12-2011, 04:16 PM

Some great information here! Thank you for the responses. It's good to know that North America is safe from contamination. I truly hope that you are correct about the lack of threat for the residents of Japan.

**Contrary Housewife** · 03-12-2011, 04:34 PM

Originally Posted by low-1

The link "claims" that the walls and roof of the building containing the reactor blew apart, but the reactor itself was undamaged. Let's hope that's the truth, if not, definitely not good news. Well, not really good news any way you slice it...

Yes, all reports are that the building housing the reactor blew up from a gas leak, that the reactor itself was not damaged at all.

Even if this reactor does "melt down" it will not be at all like Chernobyl. This reactor is much better built with more shielding and safety features and it will not spread radiation across half the continent. It's very likely they will be able to safely shut it down before there is a chance for further disaster.

The far greater problem looming is that this power plant represents about 20% of Japan's electrical production and shutting it down will further strain their already damaged electrical grid.

**Darlene** · 03-12-2011, 04:47 PM

You all are a bunch of Smarty Pants, I kinda like that.

Hoping for some good news for all.

**Joshin** · 03-12-2011, 11:42 PM

No good news. Meltdowns are in progress. My friend and his family are evacuating now even though evac recommendations haven't been issued in their area. Many people won't be able to evac easily since the transportation infrastructure is still a mess.

I feel helpless. Sending metta (prayers/good vibes) but I just don't know anymore. It's very frightening.

**Nishu** · 03-12-2011, 11:52 PM

Originally Posted by Daisygirl

Some great information here! Thank you for the responses. It's good to know that North America is safe from contamination. I truly hope that you are correct about the lack of threat for the residents of Japan.

I hope I am too.

My husband was getting all ticked off listening to the 'experts' talk about the incident on NPR today, and one of the commentators said that he was told flushing the reactor with seawater was a "Hail Mary." A Hail Mary is a last chance that rarely works. I thought it was odd when I first heard about this because even though I studied nuclear power almost 10 years ago, that much I did remember.

Nuclear reactions are in a reactor are self feeding. It does this because the uranium they have in it is unstable and will split when hit with neutrons. When it splits, it will release more neutrons, feeding several more reactions. so a reactor left unchecked will continue to increase in power indefinitely. Some substances will absorb neutrons and heat up rather than split, and one of those substances is water. If you run enough water through a reactor, it will absorb neutrons before the get a chance to cause more reactions. This is what they're trying to do.

I could not conceive of a situation where using a basically endless supply of sea water would not work. When my husband heard them talking about this on the radio, he was more confident than I was and he completely turned his nose up at the idea that the reactor might not be cooled.

They're saying that using the seawater is 'an act of desperation' and I don't think that's true. Sea water will without a doubt ruin the reactor, so I wouldn't be surprised that it would be a last ditch effort if they had any hope if saving the reactor. At this point, I doubt they care.

There's still going to be the question of whether or not the reactor has been damaged, so even if the reactor gets cooled they might have other problems.

Who knows? I hope it's not as bad as CNN is making it look. I might be completely wrong about what's going on, but I'm hoping I'm smarter than CNN in this one case.

**Nishu** · 03-13-2011, 12:07 PM

Workers scramble to cool reactors; official says 2nd blast possible - CNN.com

In case anyone is interested, this update is much more thorough and much more optimistic.

**Contrary Housewife** · 03-13-2011, 12:12 PM

Thanks Nishu. The media is making it sound pretty bad, when really there is very little to fear from this -- radiation wise. It's good to have a cool head with an informed viewpoint.

The sea water will keep the reactor cool, but basically ruin it. It will take years to restore the power capacity of this plant, if they decide to do that.