Retail Sales Up In January?

**Milly** · 02-14-2009, 11:04 AM

A small jump in the retail sales figures for January has the talking heads of the news media in a swivet about a return of consumer confidence. Apparently, they live in some alternate universe, since I can think of three reasons why the figures might be up slightly, and NONE of them reflect consumer confidence. The three are:

(1) Stockpiling
(2) Gift cards from Christmas being used for retail purchases of
neccessities
(3) People taking advantage of 'Going Out Of Business' sales
for major purchases in advance of need.

The sale of certain items, like guns and ammo, is through the roof and could account for a certain amount of it, too.

What do you guys think? Are consumers really becoming more confident or not? I don't see any evidence of it here, but I could be wrong.

**sabrelvssammy** · 02-14-2009, 11:10 AM

well I didn't help drive up those figures...and come to think of it noone else i know helped either....

i think they are all nuts....maybe they are being told to tell us all that (instead of all the doom and gloom that they have been giving us lately) so that we will BELIEVE that everyone is out there spending and because we humans like to travel in masses...we will run out and spend, spend, spend.....thus driving up the economy....

i just don't think its gonna work this time......

**Debbie-cat** · 02-14-2009, 11:12 AM

I think you hit it right on the head sabrelvssammy! I didn't contribute either and don't plan on it.

**Milly** · 02-14-2009, 11:20 AM

Originally Posted by sabrelvssammy

I think they are all nuts....maybe they are being told to tell us all that (instead of all the doom and gloom that they have been giving us lately) so that we will BELIEVE that everyone is out there spending...

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the figures are true.

After all, no one in the media would ever, ever, ever tell a lie, now would they?

**guest002** · 02-14-2009, 11:34 AM

I think your 1st instincts are correct on this one. I mean the clearance in January was intense. I didn't spend much on it but you KWIM.

**fixer** · 02-14-2009, 11:47 AM

In an article in yesterday's WSJ, it was pointed out that spending on food fell at a rate not see in the fifty some years that this number has been kept. One expert pointed out that people must have been eating out of their pantries and we will have to start spending more in the future. First, that is the first time I have seen the word "pantry" in the Wall Street Journal. Second, maybe people figured out how to eat cheaper than before. The sales of store brands are up so someone must be trying to spend less. This is why I always take numbers like this with a large grain of salt. The people of this community have a very unique perspective on things that I think is closer to reality.

**rainbowgc** · 02-14-2009, 12:25 PM

Here's what I don't get. "They" come out with these figures that show modest gains. Say a company "only" gains 1%, doesn't it mean they made more than last year, and if so why do they have to lay off people if they are making 1% more than last year?

**sabrelvssammy** · 02-14-2009, 12:35 PM

pantries ....oh yea ?? just wait til they see we are eating out of our 'gardens'....too....

**old_lady_in_the_shoe** · 02-14-2009, 12:38 PM

I think the gain can be a lot of things...

Like the serious clearance in most all the stores, esp. with all the stores closing.

but I have noticed that a lot of "other" different items have been selling at store...like carpet cleaners... people are making some of these types of purchases, so that they can clean their own carpets insted of spending money to have them professionally cleaned and such. The reason I am using this as an example, is because we own/operate a professional carpet cleaning business and these things I notice.

I also thing many people are purchasing new T.v.'s because of the "change over"....many people are dropping cable and think they will HAVE to have a newer T.V. with the switch.

Some of these "larger" purchases are being made because people "think" they are gonna actually save them money in the long run.

I don't know if they will save them money, but it makes it look like things are improving, but I don't actually see that, and I don't think the average comsumer thinks that either. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

**Milly** · 02-14-2009, 12:53 PM

Now, there's one I hadn't considered - buying DIY type items to save money in the long run. Makes sense.

As to the 1% increase with no reflected increase in jobs. I think retailers are just cleaning out inventory with no plan on replacing stuff in any significant way. Those that are going out of business aren't replacing anything, of course.

Frankly, I'm still trying to understand why oil dropped by $2 a barrel and our gas stations increased their price by 20 cents a gallon on Friday.

**sabrelvssammy** · 02-14-2009, 12:57 PM

welcome to america......

**Thevail** · 02-14-2009, 01:23 PM

I did help simulate the economy, but it was by shopping the after Christmas sales with the gift cards of the holidays.
But I stimulated it even more in february.
I bought DH $192 in work gear
I bought DD $160 in underwear socks shoes and bras
I bought ne $200 worth of new slip covers (we were going to replace the furniture this year but decided to hold off)
I also spent an extra $100 on pantry stocking
And $150 on basement fixing supplies for use a bit later in the year.

But, it's in the nature of stocking up. I would have needed most of these things at some point in the year when our personal "economy" might be a lot worse. Now I won't need to drop any serious cash for a year or so.

**Michelle** · 02-14-2009, 02:33 PM

Let's see if they're up in February...

**dcompton** · 02-14-2009, 04:41 PM

I agree with Milly's first post - stockpiling, gift cards, and buying big ticket items when sellers are desperate and offering good sales.

Do stores count the gift cards when they are sold or actually used? If when sold, that would not affect January if Christmas gift cards are used. If at the time of sale, it could have an impact, because I know if I were holding gift cards, I would want to use them soon with so many stores closing.

I don't get a sense of growing consumer confidence, and after all, 1% is not a huge increase. Spending has been down, and it may well be that in addition to sales and clearance, some purchases that people have been putting off could be delayed no longer.

**sabrelvssammy** · 02-14-2009, 05:02 PM

gift card sales are not counted until they are redeemed....i once read a statistic that as much as 50% of all gift cards are never used... i bet in this economy that figure has changed dramatically.....